FAO raises global cereal production forecast to almost 3B tonnes

GLOBAL – The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has raised its forecast for global cereal production to a record 2.961 billion tonnes for the 2025-26 season, citing improved prospects for coarse grain crops.

The latest outlook, released Sept. 5, is up 1.2% (35.6 million tonnes) from July’s projection and stands 3.5% higher than last year’s output.

According to FAO, coarse grains remain the key driver of growth, with production now projected at 1.601 billion tonnes, 36.1 million tonnes above July’s estimate and 5.9% above last season.

“The marked upward revision is primarily due to a sizable increase in the maize (corn) output forecast in the United States, reflecting record-high yields and updated area estimates,” the FAO said.

Additional upward adjustments were made for Brazil and Mexico, supported by higher yields and larger planted areas.

Wheat production, by contrast, was adjusted slightly downward compared to July, with output projected at 804.9 million tonnes.

However, the figure remains 6.9 million tonnes higher than last year. The FAO attributed the reduction mainly to lower yield prospects in China and smaller-than-expected acreage in Argentina. Improved yield outlooks in the European Union partly offset these declines.

World rice production is forecast to grow by 1% to 555.5 million tonnes (milled basis), another record. Expansions in Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia are expected to compensate for output contractions in Madagascar, Nepal, the United States, and Thailand.

The FAO also revised global cereal consumption higher, now forecast at 2.922 billion tonnes—up 44.6 million tonnes (1.6%) year-on-year. Coarse grain use is projected at 1.568 billion tonnes, driven by stronger maize and sorghum demand.

“Amid plentiful supplies, use of maize for animal feed is seen rising in major producers Brazil and the United States while falling in Argentina,” the FAO noted.

Demand for wheat feed is also strengthening in the European Union and Thailand, particularly in aquaculture.

Cereal stocks at the close of the 2025-26 season are expected to hit a record 898.7 million tonnes, up 9.6 million tonnes since July and 3.7% above opening levels.

The FAO highlighted that bumper maize harvests in the United States will push reserves there to over 50 million tonnes, while global wheat stocks are forecast to remain flat, weighed down by lower estimates in Iran and the European Union.

The world cereal stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 30.6%, signaling a comfortable supply outlook. Meanwhile, global trade in cereals is forecast at 493.4 million tonnes in 2025-26, 6.5 million tonnes above July’s projection and 1.4% higher than the previous season.

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