Emerging economies to drive surge in animal-source food consumption and production: OECD-FAO report

GLOBAL – Consumption and production of animal-source foods are set to increase significantly over the next decade, primarily driven by rising incomes in emerging economies, according to the recently released OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034. 

However, experts warn that tackling hunger and climate change will require urgent improvements in agricultural productivity and access to low-emission technologies.

The landmark report, a joint publication by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), offers a medium-term forecast for global agriculture and fisheries, serving as a reference point for policy and investment decisions.

The Outlook projects a 6% global rise in per capita calorie intake from livestock and fish products by 2034. 

This growth is set to be four times higher, 24%, in lower-middle-income countries, where economic development is increasing demand for nutrient-dense foods. However, stark disparities persist.

“In low-income countries, average daily per capita intake of animal-source foods is projected at 143 kcal, well below the 300 kcal benchmark used by FAO to analyse the cost and affordability of a healthy diet,” the report notes.

FAO Director-General QU Dongyu welcomed the projections as a step toward better nutrition but stressed the need for wider inclusivity. 

“These projections point to better nutrition for many people in developing countries, a welcome outcome that needs to be scaled up to reach those in the lowest-income countries,” he said. “Lower carbon intensity of agrifood systems is also welcome, but we can do better, and FAO and OECD stand ready to help drive it down even more.”

Animal-source food production, meat, dairy and eggs, are expected to increase by 17% through 2034. 

Cattle, poultry, pigs, and sheep herds are forecast to expand by 7%, contributing to a 6% rise in direct agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, even as productivity gains lower the carbon intensity of production.

Global output of agricultural and fish commodities is projected to expand by 14% during the same period, mainly driven by yield improvements and technological uptake in middle-income nations.

OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann emphasised the role of coordinated policy. “We have the tools to end hunger and boost global food security. Well-coordinated policies are needed to keep global food markets open, while fostering long-term productivity improvements and sustainability in the agriculture sector,” he said. 

“The OECD and FAO can support policymakers around the world in these efforts with our data, analysis and evidence-based recommendations.”

A call for smarter investment

The report warns that smallholder farmers, especially in developing nations, may face challenges due to price pressures stemming from increased productivity. 

It calls for improved access to markets, locally relevant support programs, and investment in emission-reduction technologies like precision farming, livestock feed enhancement, and water management.

A scenario analysis in the report shows that a 15% global productivity increase, coupled with widespread adoption of low-emission practices, could simultaneously reduce undernourishment and cut direct GHG emissions by 7% from current levels.

Trade is another key component of food system resilience. With 22% of global calories expected to cross international borders by 2034, the report highlights the importance of multilateral cooperation and rules-based trade in stabilising prices, bridging food deficits, and enhancing global food security.

Regional highlights and global trends

Sub-Saharan Africa holds untapped potential: the region’s beef cattle herd is three times larger than North America’s, but produces only a tenth of the output per animal. 

Meanwhile, India and Southeast Asia are set to drive 39% of global food consumption growth, while China’s share is projected to fall to 13%, down from 32% over the past decade.

Global cereal production is expected to rise by 1.1% annually, largely from improved yields. By 2034, 40% of cereals will be consumed directly by humans, while a third will go to animal feed. Biofuel demand, especially in Brazil, India, and Indonesia, is also expected to rise.

As food systems become more complex and interconnected, the report concludes that “the path forward lies in coordinated action to improve productivity, lower emissions, and ensure access to healthy diets for all.”

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