Feed sector sees relief as global grain, oilseed prices slide

GLOBAL – According to the World Bank’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook, key feed raw materials such as maize, wheat, soybeans, and soybean meal are forecast to see significant price declines through 2025. 

The shift comes amid improved global harvests, cooling energy prices, and softening demand due to weakened economic activity and trade friction, particularly between the United States and China.

Maize, a cornerstone of livestock and aquafeed, is seeing a price correction after early-year spikes caused by hot, dry weather in South America. 

Improved rainfall in Argentina and Brazil has since stabilised production, and global maize prices are projected to decline by 2% this year and again in 2026. 

Weaker demand for maize-based ethanol, driven by lower crude oil prices, is also easing pressure on maize markets.

Wheat prices, another key feed grain in several regional formulations, are similarly trending downward. 

After a modest rise earlier this year, prices dipped in March and April as growing conditions improved in major exporting countries. 

The World Bank expects wheat prices to decline modestly into 2026, aided by steady supply and uncertain global demand.

Soybean prices to soften further in 2025 

In the oilseeds segment, soybeans are leading the downturn. Global soybean prices dropped 5% in Q1 2025 and are projected to plunge 17% over the year. 

This trend is driven by a 6% increase in global production, bolstered by expanded acreage and strong yields, and by reduced imports from China, which has imposed tariffs on U.S. soybeans. These changes are pressuring U.S. benchmarks lower, with ripple effects across international markets.

For feed manufacturers, the most immediate benefit comes from soybean meal, which has seen a 7% price drop in Q1 and is projected to fall another 16% by year’s end. 

As processors crush more soybeans to meet oil demand, the meal supply is increasing, offering millers lower-cost protein inputs. Soybean oil, also used in some feed formulations and in energy-intensive feed production processes, is expected to soften slightly by 3% this year, as biofuel demand ebbs with oil prices.

For feed manufacturers and processors, falling input costs offer margin relief, but persistent volatility, trade distortions, and supply chain risks continue to threaten stability.

“Higher commodity prices have been a boon for many developing economies, two-thirds of which are commodity exporters. But we’re now seeing the highest price volatility in more than 50 years. The combination of high price volatility and low prices spells trouble,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics.

The Africa and Middle Eastern feed industry, already grappling with high energy and transport costs, animal disease outbreaks, and variable consumer demand, must navigate these shifting price dynamics carefully. 

While cheaper inputs provide temporary relief, sustained investment in strategic sourcing and local production remains essential.“Developing economies will need to take three steps to protect themselves: first, restore fiscal discipline; second, create a more business-friendly environment to attract private capital; third, liberalise trade wherever the opportunity exists,” Indermit Gill added. 

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