EU poultry meat market poised for growth as consumption rises

EUROPE – The European Union (EU) poultry sector is poised for a promising year in 2024, with projected increases in production and exports compared to 2023. 

According to the autumn 2024 update from the European Commission (EC) Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development, EU poultry meat production is expected to rise by 4%, while exports are forecasted to grow by 3%. 

This positive trend is anticipated to continue into 2025, reflecting a robust recovery within the industry.

The report indicates a general stabilization in agricultural markets following previous economic shocks and volatility, with the poultry sector displaying particularly optimistic signs. 

However, the EC remains vigilant regarding the potential impacts of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which poses a significant risk to poultry production across the region and globally.

Production recovery

In the first half of 2024, total poultry meat production in the EU increased by an impressive 4% compared to the same period in 2023. 

Notable contributions came from France and Hungary, with production surges of 116,000 metric tons (mt) and 34,000 mt, respectively, translating to year-on-year increases of nearly 16% and 14%. 

Moreover, production totals in France and Italy exceeded 20% compared to the first half of 2022.

Despite the overall positive trend, some member states faced declines in poultry meat production. Lithuania, the Netherlands, and Sweden reported reduced output, with Dutch production experiencing a nearly 5% drop compared to 2022. 

Throughout January-June 2024, producer prices for poultry remained steady at over EUR 2,500 (approximately US$2,740) per metric ton.

Looking ahead to 2025, the EC projects a more modest production increase of 0.9%, influenced by stabilizing global market conditions and growing competition from alternative meats.

Increased consumption and exports

The EC forecasts a significant boost in per-capita poultry meat consumption in the EU for 2024, with an expected increase of nearly 1 kg or 3.5%, bringing total consumption to 24.6 kg per person. 

This uptick is attributed to abundant supplies and favorable consumer perceptions of poultry products. The growth rate is anticipated to decelerate slightly in 2025, reaching approximately 25.2 kg.

EU poultry meat exports rose robustly by 11% during the first half of 2024, nearly 900,000 mt. 

Key export markets such as the Philippines, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Vietnam, the United Kingdom, and Saudi Arabia contributed to this increase. In contrast, shipments to Ukraine declined.

For 2024, the EC forecasts a 3% increase in poultry meat exports from the EU, further bolstering the sector’s positive outlook. Conversely, the EU’s poultry meat imports during the first half of 2024 fell by 4.5%, totaling around 420,000 mt. 

While imports from the UK showed signs of recovery, volumes from Brazil, Thailand, and Ukraine decreased by 11% to 12%.

Overall, the EC predicts a slight decline of 0.5% in total poultry meat imports for 2024, but it warns of potential uncertainties regarding the conditions in primary exporting countries as the year progresses into 2025.

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