Depressed rains in Kenya pose challenges for the animal feed industry

KENYA – Kenya is expected to face a season of depressed rainfall during the crucial short rains period from October to December 2024, largely due to mild La Niña conditions. 

This forecast, delivered by Dr David Gikungu, Director of the Kenya Meteorological Department, during a press conference in Nakuru, raises concerns about the potential ripple effects on various sectors, particularly the animal feed industry, which relies heavily on consistent rainfall for crop and pasture production.

The short rains, which typically play a vital role in replenishing water sources and boosting agricultural productivity, are predicted to be significantly lower than average across many parts of the country. 

Dr Gikungu explained that this reduction in rainfall is linked to a combination of climatic factors, including a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and near-to-below average sea surface temperatures in the central to eastern Pacific Ocean. 

These conditions are not conducive to adequate rainfall in East Africa, resulting in an outlook far from promising for the agricultural sector.

Counties in Central Kenya, the Rift Valley, and parts of the Coast and North Eastern regions are expected to bear the brunt of these depressed rains.

This could spell trouble for the animal feed industry, as these regions are key producers of maize and other crops used in feed manufacturing. 

Reduced rainfall could lead to lower crop yields, creating a shortage of essential raw materials. This, in turn, could drive up the cost of animal feed, putting pressure on livestock farmers already grappling with high production costs.

Moreover, the pastoralist communities in the Northwestern counties, including Turkana and parts of Samburu, are likely to face severe challenges as well. 

The expected prolonged dry spells in these areas could lead to a decline in pasture quality, forcing pastoralists to depend more heavily on commercial feed. 

However, due to the anticipated rise in feed prices due to the scarcity of ingredients, many may find it difficult to sustain their herds, leading to potential livestock losses.

Dr Gikungu advised farmers in regions projected to receive below-average rainfall to liaise with the State Department for Agriculture for guidance on planting drought-resistant crops. 

This approach could mitigate some of the impacts of the poor rainfall, ensuring that there is still some agricultural output during this challenging period. 

For pastoralists, destocking livestock might be necessary to minimise losses, as the availability of natural pasture is expected to be severely limited.

The animal feed industry must prepare for supply chain disruptions and higher input costs. 

Stakeholders are encouraged to develop contingency plans, such as sourcing alternative raw materials or investing in feed storage solutions to cushion against future shortages. 

Additionally, exploring innovations in feed formulation and seeking support from government and industry associations may help the sector navigate these uncertain times.

The expected warmer-than-average temperatures across most parts of the country and poorly distributed rainfall underscore the urgency of adapting to the changing climate for the animal feed industry.

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