China feed grain demand stays stable as hog sector contracts

CHINA – China’s grain feed and residual use is forecast to remain broadly stable in 2026-27 as a smaller breeding sow herd limits hog feed demand, partly offset by growth in poultry, aquaculture and ruminant feed, according to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).

FAS’s October 1 update forecasts China’s 2026-27 corn production at 306 million tonnes, up from 301.2 million tonnes. 

Corn imports are expected to recover to 6 million tonnes, compared with an estimated 4 million tonnes in 2025-26.

However, corn consumption is forecast at 322 million tonnes, down 1 million tonnes from the June forecast. 

FAS attributed the reduction to a lower-than-expected share of corn in feed rations and weaker-than-expected imports.

“The ratio of corn in feed rations is trending lower from 47% in January to 29% in August,” FAS said.

The shift reflects pressure on China’s hog sector, where prolonged losses are driving further sow herd liquidation. 

Feed manufacturers and livestock producers are increasingly turning to lower-cost alternatives, including wheat, barley and sorghum, reducing corn’s share of feed formulations.

FAS said China’s grain feed demand is being reshaped by declining hog production while poultry, aquaculture and ruminant feed provide some offsetting growth.

China’s 2026 wheat production forecast remains at 141 million tonnes, while total wheat consumption is projected at 150 million tonnes, up 2 million tonnes from the September outlook. 

The increase is attributed to higher feed use, although total consumption remains broadly in line with recent marketing years.

“China’s 2026 wheat market is characterised by sufficient supply, weak flour demand, and strong but potentially temporary feed substitution demand,” FAS said.

Weak flour demand and excess milling capacity have reduced mill operating rates, limiting demand for high-quality wheat.

At the same time, lower-priced wheat is gaining traction as a feed ingredient.

Rough rice production is forecast at 210 million tonnes in 2026-27, supported by stable planted area and higher yields.

Total rice consumption is projected at 147.3 million tonnes, slightly below the previous year.

Broken rice has become another important feed substitute as China seeks competitively priced grain. 

FAS said imports have remained elevated in 2026, particularly from India, Myanmar and Vietnam, because of their lower prices compared with corn and whole rice.

“China’s imports of broken rice have remained elevated in 2026, especially from India, Myanmar and Vietnam,” FAS said, adding that the trade is providing additional feed-grain supply.

The shift towards alternative grains highlights continued pressure on feed costs and the changing balance between China’s livestock sectors as hog production contracts and demand from poultry, aquaculture and ruminants grows.

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