Tuna fisheries most threatened by climate change, global study warns 

GLOBAL – Fisheries targeting tuna and other highly migratory species face the greatest risk from climate change, new research by the Marine Stewardship Council (MSC) has revealed, with scientists warning that international cooperation is urgently needed to prevent overfishing and protect livelihoods.

The study, published in Cell Reports Sustainability, analysed more than 500 sustainably certified fisheries worldwide and found that those targeting migratory species such as tunas, bonitos, and billfishes are most vulnerable to the impacts of rising ocean temperatures and shifting fish distributions. 

The paper, titled “Climate change risks to future sustainable fishing using global seafood ecolabel data”, was led by the MSC with support from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) Common Oceans Program and the Ocean Stewardship Fund.

Migrating stocks create management challenges

As ocean waters warm, migratory species are changing their routes in search of cooler environments. 

For instance, Atlantic bluefin tuna have reappeared in UK waters after decades of absence, while Pacific tuna are increasingly moving eastward. 

These shifts have major implications for international fisheries management, as stocks move across national boundaries and into the high seas.

“As a result, existing agreements between countries quickly become obsolete because the fish stocks have moved,” said Lauren Koerner, lead author of the study and Data Science Manager at the MSC. 

“We have seen fisheries adapting their approach to remain sustainable, but it is becoming more and more challenging to do so without the support of fisheries management organisations, which are responsive to the challenges of climate change.”

The study found that tuna fisheries were most at risk, followed by those targeting small pelagic species such as mackerel, herring, and blue whiting. Whitefish fisheries, including cod, haddock, hake, plaice, and sole, were also found to be vulnerable.

In contrast, fisheries targeting sedentary species such as crabs, prawns, and bivalves were the least likely to face management disputes arising from shifting stocks. 

However, these species may still suffer from other climate-related impacts such as ocean acidification and marine heatwaves.

Call for adaptive management and emissions cuts

Researchers urged governments to strengthen cooperation through adaptive allocation systems that adjust national fishing quotas based on changing stock distributions. 

They also called for a renewed commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to ensure that fisheries remain sustainable and productive.

“Climate change shows no signs of slowing and global demand for seafood continues to rise,” Koerner warned. “Governments and fisheries management organisations need to adapt their practices to keep pace and ensure our oceans remain healthy.”

According to the MSC, global seafood demand is projected to double by 2050, placing additional strain on already vulnerable fish stocks.

Joe Zelasney, Common Oceans Tuna Project Manager, emphasised the economic risks for developing coastal nations: “With climate change there will be winners and losers in tuna fisheries, but for some developing small island states, the impact on their economies could be devastating.

It is important for governments and the five tuna regional fisheries management organisations that manage tuna fisheries on the high seas to work closely together to stay ahead of the changes to protect livelihoods and regional food security.”

Certified fisheries more resilient

The analysis focused on MSC-certified fisheries that meet rigorous standards for sustainable and responsible management. 

The researchers noted that uncertified fisheries are likely to be even more vulnerable to climate change, as they may lack robust management plans or adaptive frameworks.

With the COP30 UN climate talks approaching in November, the MSC is urging global leaders to collaborate on cross-border management of fish stocks to prevent overexploitation and ensure that oceans remain productive for generations to come.

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